Will classics ever become affordable again?

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3xpendable
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Will classics ever become affordable again?

#1 Post by 3xpendable » Sun Dec 18, 2016 1:30 am

I've been daydreaming a bit and looking at a few classics I would like to get one day, and am growing increasingly despondent at ever being able to get anything nice, let alone a collection.

For example, as per my recent post, the offer of a MK3 Capri has kind of reignited my spark again. I still mostly intend to find a MK1 version here is the US as they are relatively affordable ($5,000 buys you a tidy one) but very rare so don't come up often. With that in mind I have been considering importing a MK3 in a few years if I fail to find a MK1. However, as most of you know, classic Ford are climbing hand over feet to the point that in a few years it looks like a 2.8i, let alone a Brooklands, will be in excess of 15, maybe even 20K. It's the same with 70's muscle cars here in the US, if you want anything V8 with 2 doors in decent condition then it's $25,000 at least, and some examples are even in the six figures now. All this for mass production cars that were fairly common when new. I remember 5-8 years ago we used to buy each year a "Runaround" classic such as a Moggy Minor that was useable but tatty. More often than not they didn't have a current MOT but were drivable and needed little to get them on the road. These were usually bought for hundreds then used for a year or two and sold on. Now, anything under a grand is a basket case requiring total restoration, so it's not just the sporty cars.

I get it, the baby boomers are driving it. They had old Fords in the UK or muscle cars here in the US in their youth and now the mortgage is paid off and the kids have left home, they have more disposable income to spend on toys. However, what I find ridiculous is the price some of these cars are going for. For example, over here a 70's Challenger, Mustang, Camaro etc will set you back probably $50k, that's Ferrari money! A brief look on eBay showed that for $50,000 you can get a Ferrari 308, or a nice 456 like this one:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2001-Ferrari-45 ... 7675.l2557

As much as I love classics, no way if I had 50 gees to spare would I buy any 70's run of the mill car (Ford, Dodge, whatever) when for the same money I could say I have a Ferrari sitting in my garage. Yes the upkeep on the latter will be a bit more but for the same money you could buy a brand new top of the range V8 Dodge Challenger that will certainly drive a lot nicer than the original, while not looking too dissimilar.

My fear is, that most of the cars I like are getting to be Supercar money before long. MGB GT's over here are fetching $15k for a decent one, and from what I gather are looking similar in the UK. Now all credit to Vulgalour, I wish I had a passion for an obscure car like the Princess or Rover 4 series that will never really be worth big bucks, but then if I am looking to buy something just because it's cheap and not something I want, what is the point?

At the moment, my ideal collection would be An MGB GT, a Ford/Mercury Capri with a V8 conversion and possibly a BMW E30. Not long ago you would get a tidy example of all 3 combined for under 20 grand, now a decent MGB alone would take up most of that budget. So my question is, does anyone think the bubble will ever burst and is there hope for non baby boomers to have some nice cars in the future?

I feel better for having had a little rant, so thank you :)
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alabbasi
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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#2 Post by alabbasi » Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:27 am

Simple answer is. Next recession comes along and there will be millions of people trying to sell them and no takers. It's the circle of life. Even E-Types and 911's will drop in price. Simple fact is that cars like the Capri are over inflated. Ford made millions of them. If it was an old Ferrari where they made 900 over the model life, it would make sense but not for a mass produced car like a Capri.

Buy a Mercedes Benz 450SLC. It's 10 times the car for 1/3 the price.

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Grumpy Northener
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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#3 Post by Grumpy Northener » Sun Dec 18, 2016 10:57 am

Nothing wrong with a rant :D - Alabbasi - is right in what he says and the market will change but when is another thing - I don't predict that it will anytime soon - but to wait until the prices in the market stabilise to an affordable level is for most of us a bridge too far when you are without a set of classic wheels - the alternative is to look at what else there is the market that may fit the bill - there is a strong market growing in modern classics 80's - 00's - here you are likely to find something that has performance, comfort but will more than likely emerge as a classic in 5 - 15 years time and is not that difficult to spot what is happening - so they are quite a few premium brand sports / convertibles that have deprecated to lowest point in value and are now starting to climb back up in price - Jag XK & XKR, Aston DB 7 , Merc SL, any BMW M series - find a low mileage one and you are on to something - sounds daft but find an early nicely spec'ed Ford Focus ST and sit on it and the value is only going to go one way - having said all of that there is nothing like owning what you have set your mind on but quite often it's just not to be (that's maybe why the Bugatti that I own is 1/43rd scale and has matchbox written on the underside of it)
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3xpendable
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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#4 Post by 3xpendable » Sun Dec 18, 2016 5:08 pm

alabbasi wrote:Simple answer is. Next recession comes along and there will be millions of people trying to sell them and no takers. It's the circle of life. Even E-Types and 911's will drop in price. Simple fact is that cars like the Capri are over inflated. Ford made millions of them. If it was an old Ferrari where they made 900 over the model life, it would make sense but not for a mass produced car like a Capri.

Buy a Mercedes Benz 450SLC. It's 10 times the car for 1/3 the price.
Agreed, that's what bugs me I guess. They were ten a penny when new and massively over inflated now as you say, though I know people will also say something is worth what someone will pay for it.

I looked at the SLC and know you are a big Mercedes Fan (I've owned a couple of W123's and a few 190's) but they just don't do it for me, as much as I'd like them to. I'd rather a 280, but again I don't like them enough to pay what they are selling for. If I got something German, it would be another BMW E30, and they are pretty affordable. I have an option to buy my uncle in laws Porsche 911, but it's been standing since 2003 and the fuel tank for starters is rotted out, so lord knows what else would be wrong if I got it running but I guess if it came in at the right money it would be worth it.
Grumpy Northener wrote:Nothing wrong with a rant :D - Alabbasi - is right in what he says and the market will change but when is another thing - I don't predict that it will anytime soon - but to wait until the prices in the market stabilise to an affordable level is for most of us a bridge too far when you are without a set of classic wheels - the alternative is to look at what else there is the market that may fit the bill - there is a strong market growing in modern classics 80's - 00's - here you are likely to find something that has performance, comfort but will more than likely emerge as a classic in 5 - 15 years time and is not that difficult to spot what is happening - so they are quite a few premium brand sports / convertibles that have deprecated to lowest point in value and are now starting to climb back up in price - Jag XK & XKR, Aston DB 7 , Merc SL, any BMW M series - find a low mileage one and you are on to something - sounds daft but find an early nicely spec'd Ford Focus ST and sit on it and the value is only going to go one way - having said all of that there is nothing like owning what you have set your mind on but quite often it's just not to be (that's maybe why the Bugatti that I own is 1/43rd scale and has matchbox written on the underside of it)
I'm taking up quite a bit of your time lately GN! Thanks for the reply again. I might start looking up later cars, at the moment the option I like best is a 2005 ish Mustang GT, but I have plenty of time to keep looking and decide, the right thing will rear its head at the right time I feel. At the end of the day I want something I want, not just something that's affordable to say I have a classic in the garage. I know what you mean about a Focus ST. In 2014 I owned a low mileage (39,000) one owner from new 1999 Ford Puma, it was totally original and a desirable Series 1 model with FSH etc. I kept it 6 months and sold it to buy a Mini Cooper, I'll probably kick myself in 10 years when it will be worth probably 10 times what I sold it for, but I know that I had nowhere to store it where it wouldn't have rotted away, story of most peoples lives.

I also have a collection of models of the unattainable's ;)
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GHT
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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#5 Post by GHT » Sun Dec 18, 2016 8:36 pm

Grumpy Northener wrote:Nothing wrong with a rant :D - Alabbasi - is right in what he says and the market will change but when is another thing - I don't predict that it will anytime soon - but to wait until the prices in the market stabilise to an affordable level is for most of us a bridge too far when you are without a set of classic wheels - the alternative is to look at what else there is the market that may fit the bill - there is a strong market growing in modern classics 80's - 00's
Chris has nailed it, if you can't find the Capri you like, at the price you are prepared to pay, then perhaps a more modern car might be worth considering. Out of curiosity, I checked out the early VW Siroccos. Reason being, I bought my wife one, brand new in 1987, she still has it. John tells me that not only are these a good classic but a good bet for the future. I think he means that their price will rise. A quick search found me this particular car, a 1992 model and one of the last ones to be built. It comes with a, complete from new, service and ownership history, right back to the salesman's card and purchase invoice. Priced at £3750.
I can't remember what I paid for her car and I can't find it on the internet either. Six or seven grand maybe. But to put that into perspective, I was a manager on about £24K at the time, my house that had cost £30K in 1981 had reached £85K by 1987. Today you wouldn't get any change out of £350K for that house. I'm not trying to convince you that buying this particular car is a good bet, it was just an example of what Chris was saying and what John confirmed. But, truth be told, apart from her ladyship's, I haven't seen one in ages, not even at shows, so it can't be too long before they become as rare as rocking horse droppings.
So is there any 20/30 year old car that takes your fancy?

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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#6 Post by EricTheRed » Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:15 pm

I was looking to get back into classic ownership recently but had lost touch with how prices had been going over the last few years. What I really wanted was a 3 litre Mk1 Capri - but then I saw what these cost nowadays! Never mind I thought I could get my second choice a Datsun 240Z - then I saw the price of them! I've got the money but I simply refuse to pay that much.

That said I've just paid £7,500 for a VW T4 camper van. Over 7 grand for a 13 year old van! But then all campers, new and old, are silly money for what they are.

3xpendable
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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#7 Post by 3xpendable » Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:17 am

As I say, BMW E30's are still affordable here so initially I might go with one of them.
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alabbasi
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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#8 Post by alabbasi » Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:26 am

3xpendable wrote:I looked at the SLC and know you are a big Mercedes Fan (I've owned a couple of W123's and a few 190's) but they just don't do it for me, as much as I'd like them to. I'd rather a 280, but again I don't like them enough to pay what they are selling for. If I got something German, it would be another BMW E30, and they are pretty affordable. I have an option to buy my uncle in laws Porsche 911, but it's been standing since 2003 and the fuel tank for starters is rotted out, so lord knows what else would be wrong if I got it running but I guess if it came in at the right money it would be worth it.
What are Opel Mantas selling for in the UK these days? I had an A reg GTE coupe while in college. it was black, had the twin headlight conversion and the 400 bonnet with the clips. Aside from being lowered 4 inches and having tiny alloys, it was actually a pretty nice car. A friend had a Capri 2.0S and to me, it did not feel anywhere near as sporty. They do look good though.

Like you, I don't get it. For less than the cost of a Capri or RWD escort, you can pick up an XJS 3.6 with a 5 speed , BMW 6 or as I mentioned, an SLC and have plenty of change left over. These cars are in a completely different league and can be quite easily driven daily. If you really must however, go big or go home :)

http://dallas.craigslist.org/dal/ctd/5909898527.html

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3xpendable
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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#9 Post by 3xpendable » Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:10 pm

I think Manta's aren't up there in terms of the Capri values, but they are climbing. I actually really like that Trans Am! I'm off to look at a few ;)
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JPB
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Re: Will classics ever become affordable again?

#10 Post by JPB » Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:04 pm

alabbasi wrote:...//...go big or go home..
^^^ :thumbs:
That would certainly be my approach if I'd flitted to a mahoosive country with road space to spare and roads where there are more than one lane to drive in. Similarly, if I decided to become Italian, then I'd go for a Vespa Ape and if I decide at any time that Japan is the country to try on for size then I'd have to buy a mad replica of an older, probably British design, such as my own 3/4 scale MPV but with a replica Renault 4 body as made by the same lunatics who brought the Mitsuoka Viewt to the world.

A distantly removed cousin of mine runs a British-themed crow restaurant in South Carolina. I suggested to her that she should use something like a Minor van or even the lovely A60 van as based on the pre-Farina shape of the A55. A mini perhaps? That would be a great rolling ad for her uniquely British-themed premises, right? Wrong on all counts as it goes. Cousin It ended up buying a generic Japanese, made in the USA Toyota to use for her home deliveries of fresh crow-based cuisine. Apparently, there is a substitute for cubes!

Yes, that
go big or go home
thing is a phrase that she's heard regularly during her twelve years of trading over there, but the way they say it to her is without the "go big or" part.
Don't get me wrong, she's in one of the most inclusive of all the places she's ever stayed but the joke wore thin so these days, the restaurant is a sushi bar and she's probably going to be bankrupt by next February.
:lol:
J
"Home is where you park it", so the saying goes. That may yet come true.. :oops:

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